U.S.-Iran Deal Lifts Risk Assets as Oil Drops and Fed Decision Looms

Global markets moved higher after President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran had reached a peace deal, with signing expected on June 19. The agreement includes the removal of a U.S. naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to CoinDesk’s Daybook report.

The development mattered immediately for energy and risk markets. Crude oil fell 5% to around $80 per barrel, roughly 33% below its early March high of $120, while equity indexes advanced globally, with the exception of Tel Aviv. U.S. stocks also strengthened in pre-market trading, and the Invesco QQQ ETF rose 2%.

Crypto joined the broader risk-on move. Bitcoin briefly traded above $66,000 and was recently up 2.7% over 24 hours, with most of the gain following Trump’s announcement on Sunday. Precious metals also rose, with gold up nearly 3% over 24 hours to above $4,330 per ounce.

Still, the report cautioned that the ceasefire is set to run for another 60 days while talks continue toward a final agreement. Recent months have included ceasefires, breakdowns and renewed negotiations, leaving the path to a lasting settlement uncertain.

Markets also have the Federal Reserve in focus. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to preside over his first FOMC meeting on June 17, with markets pricing a 97% probability that rates remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. After oil’s sharp drop, investors are no longer pricing in rate increases this year, though that outlook could shift if Middle East risks intensify again.