Compass Point Says AI Leases Are Repricing Bitcoin Miner Stocks

Compass Point analysts Michael Donovan and Ed Engel said Applied Digital, TeraWulf and Cipher Mining appear to be trading below the value of their signed AI data center contracts, according to a CoinDesk report. The analysts argue that the market is not fully crediting the long-term lease income already attached to some AI infrastructure projects built from former bitcoin mining sites.

The call matters because it points to a changing valuation framework for miners that are moving into AI and high-performance computing. Instead of being viewed mainly through bitcoin price exposure and mining margins, these companies may increasingly be assessed like infrastructure landlords with contracted rental revenue.

Compass Point’s approach separates signed AI leases from uncontracted development pipelines. The firm estimates the value of future rental income from contracted projects after accounting for remaining build-out costs, then compares that figure with each company’s enterprise value to judge how much the market is assigning to future capacity.

Under that framework, Applied Digital, TeraWulf and Cipher Mining showed the largest disconnects between contracted business and current valuations. Compass Point said investors appear to be giving little or no value to additional AI capacity that has not yet been leased, even though those projects could generate rental income if completed and contracted.

The report drew a contrast with Core Scientific and Riot Platforms. Compass Point said Core Scientific’s existing contracts are already largely reflected in its valuation, while Riot is being valued more on future potential, including its Corsicana campus and broader AI development pipeline, despite more limited contracted capacity today.

The next two years could be important for the sector as companies move from announcing AI deals to completing facilities, bringing tenants online and beginning rent payments. Compass Point expects execution and recurring cash flow to become more important drivers after a period in which former bitcoin miners drew market attention from AI partnerships and access to large power infrastructure.