Bitcoin Nears Cycle Bottom as Loss-Held Supply Crosses Key Level, K33 Says

Bitcoin may be approaching a cycle bottom, according to K33, after more than half of its circulating supply was held at a loss. The firm said this condition has historically appeared close to major market lows.

The development matters because loss-held supply is often watched as a measure of market stress. When a large share of Bitcoin holders are underwater, it can signal broad capitulation, a phase that has previously occurred near the end of down cycles.

K33 said Bitcoin has historically bottomed within weeks of the point when more than 50% of circulating supply was held at a loss. The firm also noted that most past cycles saw strong one-year returns after this threshold was reached.

The analysis does not guarantee that the same pattern will repeat. Crypto market cycles can be shaped by liquidity, macro conditions, regulation, exchange activity and investor sentiment, none of which move on a fixed schedule.

For readers, the key takeaway is that K33 views the current on-chain loss profile as consistent with prior late-cycle stress periods. It is a market signal to watch, not a prediction of a specific price or timeline.