Bitcoin ETF Outflows Slow as Bond Market Pressure Builds

U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw another week of outflows, but the pressure showed signs of easing. The funds lost $228 million in redemptions during the shortened week, marking a sixth consecutive week in negative territory and bringing cumulative outflows over that stretch to $5.94 billion, according to SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk.

The slowdown matters because ETF flows have become an important gauge of institutional demand for bitcoin. The latest figure was below the prior week’s $315.84 million in withdrawals and followed four earlier weeks in which outflows exceeded $1 billion each and grew week by week.

Tagus Capital said the softer pace suggested the sharpest phase of institutional de-risking may be fading, even though ETF demand has not yet returned to sustained net inflows. The firm described the backdrop as stabilizing but still fragile, with investors no longer accelerating exits and instead repositioning capital more selectively.

A separate pressure point is emerging from traditional markets. CoinDesk noted that U.S. two-year Treasury yields, which are sensitive to Federal Reserve rate expectations, have risen even as WTI crude futures have fallen. The two-year yield was around 4.21% at the time of the report, its highest level since February 2025.

That divergence suggests the market’s concern may be shifting from oil and geopolitical stress toward expectations for tighter Fed policy. FactSet forecasts cited by CoinDesk showed core PCE inflation expected to rise 0.37% month over month, lifting the 12-month rate to 3.4%, which would be the highest since May 2024.

Together, easing but persistent ETF redemptions and a more hawkish signal from bond yields point to a difficult near-term setup for bitcoin’s recovery. Crypto markets were buoyant on hopes tied to a U.S.-Iran deal, but the broader macro backdrop remains a key constraint.