Bitcoin fell in both opening quarters of 2026, a pattern previously recorded only in 2018 and 2022. The comparison highlights persistent market weakness but does not determine how the rest of the year will unfold.
Bitcoin fell in both opening quarters of 2026, a pattern previously recorded only in 2018 and 2022. The comparison highlights persistent market weakness but does not determine how the rest of the year will unfold.
Bitcoin’s broader seasonal record offers a contrasting signal. The third quarter has historically been its weakest on average, while the fourth has delivered an average gain of 77% and a median increase of nearly 48%. That fourth-quarter strength failed during the structural bear markets of 2018 and 2022.
Bitcoin entered the third quarter near $59,000 after losing 22.2% in the first quarter and 14.09% in the second, according to Coinglass data cited by CoinDesk. It is only the third time the cryptocurrency has started a year with consecutive quarterly declines.
The two previous instances occurred in 2018 and 2022, both among bitcoin’s weakest years. Neither produced a second-half recovery: bitcoin gained 3.6% in the third quarter of 2018 before falling 42% in the fourth, while the final two quarters of 2022 declined 2.6% and nearly 15%, respectively.
Those years were shaped by distinct crises. The unwinding of the initial coin offering boom weighed on 2018, while the failures of Terra and FTX defined 2022. With only two historical precedents, the pattern does not establish that 2026 will follow the same path.
Bitcoin’s broader seasonal record offers a contrasting signal. The third quarter has historically been its weakest on average, while the fourth has delivered an average gain of 77% and a median increase of nearly 48%. That fourth-quarter strength failed during the structural bear markets of 2018 and 2022.
Current pressure appears tied to sustained selling rather than a sudden panic. CoinDesk cited record monthly outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, subdued on-chain activity, capital rotation into artificial-intelligence stocks and a strong dollar. Bitcoin nevertheless began the third quarter with a modest gain of about 1%.
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