Analysts expect artificial intelligence, Federal Reserve policy and changing market structures to drive sharp swings in crypto and equities during the second half of 2026. Bitcoin has lagged record-setting technology stocks, falling 46% to $58,300 by Tuesday.
Analysts expect artificial intelligence, Federal Reserve policy and changing market structures to drive sharp swings in crypto and equities during the second half of 2026. Bitcoin has lagged record-setting technology stocks, falling 46% to $58,300 by Tuesday.
The divergence matters because analysts expect broad economic policy and market structure to exert greater influence across asset classes. Kestrel data cited by CoinDesk showed correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies rising in recent months, suggesting markets have become more responsive to policy developments than company-specific fundamentals.
Bitcoin and equities are entering the second half of 2026 on sharply different paths. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence pushed technology stocks to record highs during the first half, while bitcoin fell 46% to $58,300 by Tuesday, according to CoinDesk.
The divergence matters because analysts expect broad economic policy and market structure to exert greater influence across asset classes. Kestrel data cited by CoinDesk showed correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies rising in recent months, suggesting markets have become more responsive to policy developments than company-specific fundamentals.
Mark Connors, the former global head of portfolio at Credit Suisse and chief investment officer of Risk Dimensions, said AI is dividing companies into infrastructure beneficiaries and businesses vulnerable to disruption from large language models and AI agents. He pointed to weakness in consulting and software companies, including Accenture, Autodesk and Intuit, as evidence of that reassessment.
Connors expects uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and Treasury financing to keep markets volatile before financial conditions improve. The broader economy has remained resilient, but the interaction between monetary policy and increasingly correlated markets could produce substantial swings across both equities and crypto.
Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus, said U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional derivatives hedging have altered bitcoin’s trading behavior and weakened some historical links with macro indicators. He nevertheless argued that bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact and expects a bear-market bottom between $54,000 and $58,000, while waiting for a final bottoming pattern before declaring the downturn over.
Keep exploring
Bitget plans to exit the Japanese market and close all remaining positions by the end of the year. The move adds to ongoing shifts among crypto companies navigating Japan’s regulatory environment.
Read
CoinDesk’s State of Crypto coverage counts down recent developments shaping the crypto policy and market landscape. The report frames these changes as important for how companies and participants navigate the sector.
Read
Strategy said it is holding the dividend on its STRC preferred stock at 12%. The decision keeps the payout unchanged for investors in the company’s yield-focused security.
Read